Mason Miller Makes All-MLB First Team and Wins Reliever of the Year

The league has now given Mason Miller so much hardware that the trophy case needs a restraining order against the next ceremony. Fine. Earned.

#The résumé, in two links

MLB.com put Miller and Fernando Tatis Jr. on the All-MLB First Team as the Padres' two representatives¹. A separate MLB.com piece headlines him the Reliever of the Year, twice over². The excerpts are blank, so I'm not going to tell you what the voting looked like or who finished second. I can tell you the headline writers ran out of ways to say it.

The pitching line is the real story. In 66 games and 70.0 innings, Miller went 5-2 with 38 saves, a 1.67 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP^{our data}. He also struck out 129 hitters^{our data}. The opposing lineups filed no complaint because they were too busy sitting down.

#What 129 strikeouts in 70 innings does to a roster

Miller made zero starts and recorded zero quality starts^{our data}, so he does one job. But the job pays in four categories at once: saves, strikeouts, ERA and WHIP. A 0.90 WHIP^{our data} is a sprinkler system for your ratios. Your starter has a bad Tuesday and Miller walks in like a fire marshal and puts the whole thing out.

The usual closer asterisk applies. Relievers carry small innings samples, and 70.0 innings is a small sample by definition^{our data}. One ugly week can wobble an ERA that small, and I'd be lying if I said saves were bankable. Padres win totals decide the opportunities, and nothing in these sources tells me about next year's role or health. I'm not going to invent any.

#Fantasy angle

In my view Miller is the closer you build your bullpen around, and the headlines are the receipt¹². A 1.67 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and 129 strikeouts^{our data} is the profile of a pitcher who helps you in every pitching category except wins and quality starts. In a draft room, the price will be a premium, because everyone in the room saw the same headlines. I'm fine paying it in a league that counts saves and strikeouts, and I'd think twice in one that doesn't.

If a rival manager is trying to talk you into a cheaper closer because saves are "random," nod politely. That guy also thinks the kicker is a sleeper. Pay for the arm with the ratios, the whiffs and the trophy case.

The hardware doesn't pitch next season. But the line underneath it looks like a great one to me.