← Statistics · updated 27 Sep 2026
What an injury actually does to fantasy football points
Seven injury situations measured over five NFL seasons: the QB without his WR1, the next receiver up, the back behind a short line, and the three that do nothing.
Key numbers
- +0.06 pts/wkchange for a QB when his top receiver is out n=29 · no measurable drop
- +1.94 pts/wkgain for the next receiver up when the WR1 is out +17% · n=35
- -1.42 pts/wkloss for a lead back behind an offensive line short two starters -10% · n=75
- -0.56 pts/wkloss for a WR1 when his starting QB is out -4% · n=78
- not in the datathe "smash spot" against a banged-up defense secondary short two: +0.19; front seven short two: -1.59
| Who | When | Change / wk | Baseline | n | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The quarterback | his top target (≥20% of targets) is Out or Doubtful | +0.06 (0%) | 16.6 | 29 | No measurable drop in our sample. The result is noisy across thresholds (−0.2 at ≥15%, +4.8 at ≥25% on 11 weeks), so the honest sentence is "it does not show up". |
| The next pass-catcher | the top target is out | +1.94 (+17%) | 11.6 | 35 | The vacuum is real, and it lands on the man who inherits the targets — positive at every threshold tried. |
| The top target | his QB1 is Out or Doubtful and a backup starts | -0.56 (-4%) | 14.3 | 78 | Small and consistent. |
| The lead running back | two or more of the offensive line's season starters are out | -1.42 (-10%) | — | 75 | It does. The line is the one injury the feeds under-price for a back. |
| The quarterback | two or more of his line's season starters are out | +0.7 | — | 65 | No drop. |
| The top target | the opposing secondary is short two starters | +0.19 | — | 94 | Nothing. The "smash spot" against a banged-up secondary is not in the data. |
| The lead running back | the opposing front seven is short two starters | -1.59 | — | 73 | If anything the other way. A soft front is not a smash spot in our sample, so the product names it with the number and never sells it as an edge. |
Questions this page answers
Does a quarterback lose fantasy points when his top receiver is out?
Not measurably. Over 2021–2025 regular seasons, a quarterback whose top target (20% or more of the team's targets) was Out or Doubtful scored +0.06 points per week against his own 16.6-point baseline (n=29 weeks). The result is noisy across thresholds, so the honest sentence is that it does not show up in the sample.
Who benefits when a WR1 is injured?
The next pass-catcher up. With the top target out, the team's next receiver gained +1.94 points per week on an 11.6-point baseline (+17%, n=35), and the gain held at every target-share threshold tried. The vacuum lands on the man who inherits the targets, not as a debit on the man throwing them.
How much does a running back lose behind an injured offensive line?
About 1.42 points a week (-10%, n=75) when two or more of the line's season starters are out. The quarterback behind the same line shows no drop (+0.7, n=65).
Is a receiver a "smash play" against a secondary missing two starters?
Not in our sample: +0.19 points per week (n=94), which is nothing. A lead back against a front seven short two starters measured -1.59 (n=73), if anything the other way. Ribby shows both with the number and never sells either as an edge.
How this was measured
Our own weekly stat rows and injury reports for the 2021–2025 regular seasons, full-PPR scoring. For each situation we found every player-week where the condition held (a top target Out or Doubtful and taking no snap; a line, secondary or front seven with two or more of its season starters out) and compared the player's points in those weeks to his own points in the same season's other weeks — paired within the player-season, so a bad team's bad quarterback is compared to himself, not to the league.
A "top target" is a receiver with at least 20% of his team's targets that season; "season starters" on a unit are the men at or above 60% of the offense's snaps (line) or 55% of the defense's (secondary, front seven). The quarterback result is thin (n=29) and moves with the threshold, which is why it is reported as "no measurable drop" rather than as a number to trade on.
Reproduce it with scripts/backtest-nfl-situation.mts in the repository, which re-runs the measurement from the tables and fails if these constants have drifted. Measured 27 Sep 2026. In the product these effects are shown beside a player's projection as a reason with its weight; none of them moves a projection, a rank or a lineup — a predictive signal earns that only on graded results.
Cite this
These numbers are free to quote with a link (CC BY 4.0). Suggested: Ribby, “What an Injury Does to Fantasy Points — Measured, 2021–2025”, ribby.ai, updated 27 Sep 2026. https://ribby.ai/stats/nfl-injury-impact
https://ribby.ai/stats/nfl-injury-impact